Odds of being the victim of an airborne terrorist attack: 1 in 10,408,947

Nate Silver, the hero of statistics made famous by the past two elections has the following computation regarding airplane safety in light of recent inept terrorists:

There were a total of 674 passengers, not counting crew or the terrorists themselves, on the flights on which these incidents occurred. By contrast, there have been 7,015,630,000 passenger enplanements over the past decade. Therefore, the odds of being on given departure which is the subject of a terrorist incident have been 1 in 10,408,947 over the past decade. By contrast, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are about 1 in 500,000. This means that you could board 20 flights per year and still be less likely to be the subject of an attempted terrorist attack than to be struck by lightning.

via Fivethirtyeight

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